Publisher Description

Why does one smoker die of lung cancer but another live to 100? The answer is 'The Hidden Half' - those random, unknowable variables that mess up our attempts to comprehend the world.

We humans are very clever creatures - but we're idiots about how clever we really are. In this entertaining and ingenious book, Blastland reveals how in our quest to make the world more understandable, we lose sight of how unexplainable it often is. The result - from GDP figures to medicine - is that experts know a lot less than they think.

Filled with compelling stories from economics, genetics, business, and science, The Hidden Half is a warning that an explanation which works in one arena may not work in another. Entertaining and provocative, it will change how you view the world.

Author Biography

Michael Blastland is a writer and broadcaster. He was the originator and first producer of BBC Radio 4's More or Less, Britain's most authoritative guide to numbers and evidence in public argument. He is the bestselling author of The Tiger That Isn't: Seeing Through a World of Numbers, a book about numbers and how to interpret them, which he co-authored with Andrew Dilnot. He also wrote The Norm Chronicles, co-authored with Professor David Spiegelhalter.

Table of Contents

0: Prologue 1: Bill is not Ben 2: I am not constant 3: Here is not there, now is not then 4: One path is not enough 5: The principle isn't practical 6: Big is not small 7: Big is not clear 8: The ignorant chicken 9: What to do 10: Postscript

Review

Highly original and challenging... Once you have read this book, you can't unread it. * Daniel Finkelstein, The Times *
Fascinating and provocative. Blastland is one of the most original thinkers around. * Tim Harford - Financial Times columnist and author of The Undercover Economist *
Elegantly written and mind-expanding, The Hidden Half will enthrall you with its storytelling while educating you with its scientific depth. * Daniel H. Pink - bestselling author of Drive *
Brilliant. Blastland provides an explanation of the need for humility in the face of the inevitable limits to knowledge and our all-too-human temptation to tell stories about the world that go far beyond what the evidence will support. * Diane Coyle - Bennett Professor of Public Policy, Cambridge University *
Fascinating... As John Wooden said, it's what you learn after you know it all that counts. * Andrew Gelman - author of Rich State Poor State Red State Blue State *
Excellent. Blastland makes a compelling case that God is fond of playing dice with the cosmos-and the list of unpredictable things keeps growing, not shrinking. * Phillip Tetlock - bestselling author of Superforecasting *
Beautifully written and often very funny. Anyone making decision that matter should enjoy this book and profit from its lessons. * Dame Frances Cairncross - Chair, Executive Committee of the Institute for Fiscal Studies *
Thought-provoking. * UnHerd *

Long Description

A revolutionary and utterly original book revealing why we should doubt experts - and question ourselves Why does one smoker die of lung cancer but another live to 100? The answer is 'The Hidden Half' - those random, unknowable variables that mess up our attempts to comprehend the world. We humans are very clever creatures - but we're idiots about how clever we really are. In this entertaining and ingenious book, Blastland reveals how in our quest to make the world more understandable, we lose sight of how unexplainable it often is. The result - from GDP figures to medicine - is that experts know a lot less than they think. Filled with compelling stories from economics, genetics, business, and science, The Hidden Half is a warning that an explanation which works in one arena may not work in another. Entertaining and provocative, it will change how you view the world.

Review Quote

"Elegantly written and mind-expanding . . . will enthrall you with its storytelling while educating you with its scientific depth." --Daniel H. Pink, author, Drive

Details